Weekly Outlook (June 16–20, 2025)

Starting the New Week

We continue to observe volatile price movements in global markets. As we closed last week, we witnessed rising geopolitical tensions following Israel‘s attack on Iran. At the start of the new week, while geopolitical tension remains elevated, the conflict appears to be contained to rocket strikes, which has slightly reduced demand for gold. However, as the attacks persist and geopolitical risks increase, oil prices are supported on the upside. Meanwhile, gold price pullbacks may be seen as buying opportunities in the absence of a concrete peace agreement.

This week, all eyes will be on news from the Middle East, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, and the release of key U.S. employment reports!

Macroeconomic Overview

Especially with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced last week as 2.4%, it continues to support the FED‘s interest rate cut possibilities. Especially Core Inflation, which the FED also follows closely; was announced as 0.1% while the expectation was 0.3%, meaning that inflation rates excluding energy and food continue to fall in the US. The decline in inflation also continues to support the FED‘s interest rate cut possibilities in total. Important data from the US will continue to be the focus of the markets this week. On Tuesday, Japan‘s interest rate decision and Retail Sales from the US, inflation figures from the UK and Europe on Wednesday, the FED‘s critical interest rate decision and Chairman Powell‘s speech from the US, interest rate decisions from the UK, Switzerland and Turkey on Thursday, and the FED Manufacturing Index figures from the US on the last trading day of the week will be the main focus of the markets!

On the other hand, the FED-Policy conflict continues to grow. According to Trump‘s strategy, we observe an escalation of the conflict process with Fed Chair Powell due to the need for a low interest rate policy to increase exports. This situation strengthens the possibility of FED Chair Powell‘s resignation, while in the end, it becomes a factor supporting positive movement in precious metals as a period of great uncertainty. All eyes will be on FED Chair Powell‘s statement in front of the cameras on Wednesday!

Geopolitical Overview

Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate worldwide. Rocket attacks between Iran and Israel are ongoing. The sharp rise in oil prices could negatively affect U.S. inflation and, in turn, reduce the likelihood of rate cuts. In the event of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global economic activity could suffer, marking one of the many risks stemming from ongoing geopolitical instability.

Technical Outlook

Gold began 2025 at $2,625 and closed Q1 at a record high of $3,125. Technically, prices above $3,300 continue to support a positive outlook. With rising geopolitical tension and expectations of Fed rate cuts, demand for precious metals remains strong. If gold prices hold above the $3,400 level this week, we could see a move toward the $3,475–$3,500 range.

Local Market Outlook

Domestically, gold prices in the Grand Bazaar closed last week at 4,370 TL per gram. This week, we are seeing slightly bearish movements around 4,260 TL. The Central Bank of Turkey’s potential rate cut in June, rising regional geopolitical tension, and the USD/TRY exchange rate surpassing 39.40 all positively impact gram gold prices.

In Turkey, premium levels over international gold prices had aligned due to a drop in holiday-related demand. However, with renewed geopolitical tension, local demand for gold has increased. Gold is now trading with a $30 premium per ounce compared to international markets. On a kilogram basis, prices are approximately $950 higher than those in the London market.

This week’s focus will be on the Fed’s rate decision and geopolitical developments!

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 16% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in July.

Disclaimer: The information, comments, and recommendations herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment decisions should be based on a personal assessment of risk and return preferences and should ideally be made in consultation with a licensed advisor. The general content provided here may not be suitable for your financial situation or investment expectations.