
Weekly Outlook: February 3-7, 2025


Markets were closely watching the tariffs that Trump would impose. Over the weekend, Trump implemented a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Following Trump‘s decision, Monday opened with sharp selling movements, especially in global stock markets. In the U.S., major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones started the week with a roughly 2% loss. The situation was not much different in Europe either; the German DAX index opened the week with a gap-down and a 2% drop. The increasing expectations of higher tariffs from Trump were considered a signal of slowing economic activity, prompting investors to seek safe havens.


We have entered a period where the demand for safe havens has increased due to Trump‘s unpredictability. Gold began the year at $2625 and gained 6% by early February. On the silver side, performance was more positive than gold. Silver prices, which started 2025 at $28.90, quickly rose to $31.70 with a 10% premium by early February. On the macroeconomic side, markets are pricing in two interest rate cuts from the Fed, while the Dollar Index remains strong due to Trump.

Domestic inflation figures have also been released. The inflation expectation was 41.25%, but the actual figure came out at 42.12%. This marks a slight decrease compared to the previous month. The decline in inflation has caused some positive movement in the exchange rate, bringing the Dollar/TL close to the 36.00 mark in the Grand Bazaar. Additionally, the rise in both the Dollar against the TL and in global gold and silver prices continues to positively affect the local prices of gold and silver.
As long as gold stays above the $2700 region, we expect it to test the $3100 level. For silver, the long-awaited upward movement may happen this year, especially if the $33.00 region is broken upwards.

This week, attention will be on both Trump’s decisions and critical data from the U.S. The most important data, which directly concerns the labor market, are the Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment figures. These will help understand the Fed’s future interest rate policy. Weakness in the labor market may increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed. In such a case, we might see signs of weakness in the Dollar Index, and once again observe record price movements in precious metals.
Warning: The information, comments, and advice provided here are not investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided on a personalized basis, taking into account individual risk and return preferences. The content here is general in nature and does not direct any specific investment recommendations. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation or risk preferences. Therefore, investment decisions made based solely on the information here may not produce results in line with your expectations.
DAY |
HOUR |
FOREIGN CURRENCY |
EVENT |
EXPECTATION |
FORMER |
MONDAY |
10:00 |
TRY |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Monthly) (Jan) |
4,35% |
1,03% |
10:00 |
TRY |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Annual) (Jan) |
41,25% |
44,38% |
|
13:00 |
EUR |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Annual) (Jan) |
2,4% |
2,4% |
|
17:45 |
USD |
Production Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Jan) |
50,1 |
49,4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TUESDAY |
18:00 |
USD |
Job Opportunities and Personnel Turnover Rate (JOLTS) (Search) |
7,880M |
8,098M |
WEDNESDAY |
16:15 |
USD |
ADP Tarım Dışı İstihdam (Oca) |
149K |
122K |
17:45 |
USD |
Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Jan) |
53,1 |
56,8 |
|
18:00 |
USD |
ISM İmalat Dışı Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Jan) |
54,2 |
54,1 |
|
18:30 |
USD |
Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Stocks |
- |
3,463M |
|
THURSDAY |
15:00 |
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision (Feb) |
4,50% |
4,75% |
16:30 |
USD |
Applications for Unemployment Rights |
214K |
207K |
|
FRIDAY |
16:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (Monthly) (Jan) |
0,3% |
0,3% |
16:30 |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment (Jan) |
154K |
256K |
|
16:30 |
USD |
İşsizlik Oranı (Oca) |
4,1% |
4,1% |