Weekly Outlook (May 26–30, 2025)

Starting the New Week
We continue to observe volatile price movements in global markets. Last week, precious metals experienced an upward rally; however, the new week began with some selling pressure, and initial pricing reflected this trend.

Tariff Policy
In recent weeks of the trade wars, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% over a 90-day period, while China lowered its tariffs on U.S.-origin goods from 125% to 10%. These developments had boosted risk appetite in the markets. However, on Friday, tariff threats resurfaced as Trump shifted his focus to the European Union, announcing plans to impose a 50% tariff starting June 1, 2025. This announcement once again heightened risk perception. Nonetheless, following a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on May 25, 2025, it was announced that the implementation would be postponed to July 9, 2025.

Macroeconomic Outlook

Last week, the inflation data released from the Eurozone came in at 2.2%. Accordingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue its interest rate cut cycle. The impact of the tariff packages may reflect on macroeconomic indicators as inflationary pressure in the coming period.

In the U.S., the Services PMI data significantly exceeded expectations, coming in at 52.3. This figure was interpreted as a sign that the probability of a recession remains low for now.

This week, key U.S. economic data will remain in the spotlight. On Tuesday, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, followed by the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, Q1 GDP data on Thursday, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
GDP and PCE data, in particular, may be decisive for the Fed‘s interest rate policy and could lead to increased market volatility.

Geopolitical Outlook

We are also going through a critical period in terms of geopolitical developments. No concrete agreement was reached during the direct ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine held in Istanbul on May 15, 2025. In addition, reports of increased attacks on the front lines supported the rise in gold prices.

In the Middle East, Israeli attacks have intensified. Market participants are closely monitoring whether Iran will become directly involved in the conflict.

Gold, which started 2025 at $2,625 per ounce, closed Q1 at a record high of $3,125. Technically, pricing above $3,230 continues to support a positive outlook, and expectations of interest rate cuts keep demand for precious metals strong. However, if tariff uncertainties become more clarified, a technical pullback in gold prices to around $3,285 could be seen.

Local Market Outlook

Domestically, the gram gold price in the Grand Bazaar closed last week at 4,210 TRY. In the new week, prices are seen around 4,180 TRY with a selling trend. The Central Bank of Turkey‘s expected interest rate cut in June and the USD/TRY exchange rate exceeding 39.00 have had a positive impact on gram gold prices in global terms.

In Turkey, the premium on ounce gold has risen up to $20. On a kilogram basis, the price difference with the London market has reached approximately $650. This week, attention will be focused on the U.S. PCE data, tariff developments, and geopolitical news flow.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in July is currently priced at around 24%.

Disclaimer: The information, comments, and recommendations provided here do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided on a personalized basis, taking into account the individual’s risk and return preferences. The content, comments, and recommendations presented here are general in nature and not intended to be directive in any way. These may not be suitable for your financial situation or risk and return preferences. Therefore, making investment decisions based solely on the information provided here may not yield results aligned with your expectations.