02.06.2025 Weekly Outlook (June 2–6 2025)
We continue to observe volatile price movements in global markets. On the first trading day of June, we are seeing a positive start in precious metals. We are currently in a rare period where demand is rising for both U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds and precious metals. This week also begins with increasing uncertainty—typically a driver of rising demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals.
This week, markets will focus on the Russia–Ukraine peace talks, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and critical employment data from the U.S..
Tariff Policy
In tariff-related news, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will increase the import tariff on steel from 25% to 50%. Last week, we also observed Trump clashing with the U.S. judiciary. The International Trade Court had previously halted his tariff package, claiming it exceeded presidential authority. However, the Court of Appeals has temporarily allowed Trump’s tariffs to remain in effect pending further review.
Especially the announcement of the US PCE (Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index) of 2.5% last week, and the FED‘s approaching year-end target of 2.1%, may strengthen the possibility of a rate cut from the FED after the second half of the year. Important data from the US this week will continue to be the focus of the markets. Chairman Powell‘s speech along with the PMI figures on Monday, JOLTS data on Tuesday, ADP, Services PMI, ISM PMI on Wednesday, Employment data on Thursday, and Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on the last trading day and most critical day of the week will be the main focus of the markets! On the other hand, the FED-Policy conflict continues to increase. According to Trump‘s strategy, we observe that a conflict process with Fed Chair Powell is escalating due to the need for a low interest rate policy to increase exports. This situation also strengthens the possibility of FED Chair Powell resigning, and in the end, it becomes a factor supporting the positive movement in precious metals as a great uncertainty process. This evening, all eyes will be watching FED Chairman Powell‘s statement in front of the cameras!
Geopolitical Outlook
On the other hand, the world continues to heat up geopolitically. The Russia-Ukraine peace talks are planned to be held today at 13:00 in the Çırağan Palace in Istanbul. Ukraine attacked Russian aircraft with UAVs over the weekend before the peace talks, and reported that more than 40 Russian aircraft were destroyed. Russia responded by attacking Ukraine with 472 UAVs and 7 ballistic missiles throughout last night. As these developments brought geopolitical tension to its peak again, we observed rapid increases in precious metals. In this environment, the outcome of the peace talks will be quite critical, and markets are currently pricing in the possibility of no agreement.
Technical Analysis
Starting 2025 at $2,625, gold per ounce closed the first quarter of the year at $3,125, reaching record levels. Technically, prices above $3,230 continue to support the positive outlook, while interest rate cut expectations keep precious metal demand alive. Last week, our expectation of a pullback to the $3285 region came true. This week, if it remains above the $3350 region, we may observe an increase to the $3400 region.
Local Market Outlook
Domestically, the gram gold price in the Grand Bazaar closed last week at 4,150 TL. In the new week, prices are observed to be around 4,240 TL with a buyer-oriented course. The expectation of a rate cut by the TCMB in June and the USD/TRY exchange rate exceeding 39.00 are positively affecting gram gold prices on a global scale. In Turkey, premiums are decreasing by up to 10 dollars on an ounce basis. On a kilogram basis, there is a difference of approximately 320 dollars compared to the London market. This week, all eyes will be on the Non-Farm Employment data from the US, tariff developments and geopolitical news flow. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed making a 0.25 basis point rate cut in July is priced at 24%.
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